Devon city expected to be the first to emerge from the recession

Exeter will be the UK’s first city to emerge from the current recession, according to a new report.

According to a report by the Centre for Economics and Business Research, which was commissioned and prepared by law firm Irwin Mitchell.

Because of a combination of infrastructure investment and a focus upon low-carbon initiatives, Devon is in the best position to recover from the downturn.

The Irwin Mitchell City Tracker looked at 50 cities across the UK and forecasts future growth in terms of GVA and employment.

According to the report, the UK fell into recession in the second quarter of 2022. The report predicts that economic growth will resume in the second quarter of this year.

According to the research, Exeter’s economy is predicted to be 1.3 per cent larger in the final quarter compared to the same period last year.

It is expected to be among the top five cities for job opportunities with levels increasing by 1.7% each year.

The Net Zero Exeter 2030 plan identifies the projects needed to meet the ambition of a carbon neutral city, requiring £200m in investment.

Exeter is followed in the league table by Reading, Birmingham, Brighton, and Edinburgh, all of which are expected to record 1.1 per cent  year-on-year growth in the final quarter.

According to research, the North is home to the slowest GVA increase. Wakefield (and Hull) are still expected see their economies shrink by this time next. Doncaster is Rotherham, Warrington, Bradford, and Warrington are the other cities at the bottom.

Cambridge is estimated to have outperformed all areas for jobs in the final quarter of 2022 and according to the study, this is expected to continue with 2.5 per cent growth recorded by the end of  the year

Liverpool, Stoke, Leeds and London are expected to be in top 10 for creating jobs, while Milton Keynes, an excellent performer in previous studies is expected to see only 0.1% year-on–year employment growth in the fourth quarter.

Josie Dent, managing economist at Cebr, said: “2023 will be a difficult year for consumers and businesses across the UK, with the cost-of-living crisis expected to lead to falling economic activity.

“However, Cebr forecasts that economic growth will resume in the second half of 2023, with most cities expected to see an annual expansion in GVA by the final quarter.”

Charlotte Rees-John, partner and head of Irwin Mitchell’s consumer sector, said: “Last year presented numerous challenges and the downward pressure on spending activity, which continues to be concentrated in the consumer sector, looks set to continue throughout the first half of 2023.

“The consumer sector has however been one of the most resilient, agile and innovative sectors in recent times and those businesses that succeed during 2023 will be in a very strong position to take advantage of a more stable economic environment in 2024.

“Considering longer-term aspirations, such as the transition to carbon net zero, is something all businesses, irrespective of the sector they are in and the pressures that they are facing, need to do. ESG is fast becoming a priority for the majority, particularly at a time when there is huge pressure and scrutiny from consumers and investors who are increasingly making their decisions based on ethical as well as financial factors.”