TSX Today Surges 833 Points as Iran War Hopes Spark the Biggest Canadian Rally in Months

A rally that follows a period of anxiety has a certain quality. The numbers are moving more quickly than normal. The volume increases. And traders who had been undecided for the entire week suddenly decide that now is the right time to participate. On March 31, 2026, the S&P/TSX Composite Index closed at 32,768.04, up 833 points, or 2.61 percent, in a single session that by mid-afternoon seemed to have finally changed the mood on Bay Street.

The catalyst was geopolitical, which made it both evident and difficult to predict. In the morning, fresh optimism about a potential resolution to the Iran conflict, which has kept oil prices high and international investors uneasy for months, permeated trading desks and never truly subsided. The index began the session at 32,156.26 and continued to rise for the majority of it, reaching a session high of 32,779.75 before closing slightly below that level. Materials took the lead. The mining industry reacted favorably as gold rose to $4,766 on COMEX. In the end, Barrick Gold gained more than 6%. AEM made almost the same amount. In a session where precious metals stocks acted as though someone had increased the volume on each trade, Equinox Gold gained more than 11%.

Here, the larger context is important. A week prior, the TSX was plunging due to concerns that WTI crude might hit $150 per barrel and that the world economy was, according to one analyst, approaching the “foothills of stagflation.” Even though Canadian commodities companies were supposedly profiting from higher energy prices, this framing, which was evocative and a little concerning, had caused the index to decline. Uncertainty rather than fundamentals was the main cause of the disconnect. Investors see more than just increased profits for Suncor and Cenovus when oil prices rise quickly due to war. They perceive a world that is more difficult to model, and worlds that are more difficult to model are typically sold off first and then reevaluated.

With over 4.4 million shares traded, Royal Bank of Canada closed at $224.88, up $5.09 per share. Toronto-Dominion increased by $2.40. CIBC, Bank of Montreal, and Bank of Nova Scotia all reported increases of more than 2.5%. The weight of Canadian bank stocks in the index is such that their movements affect the index as a whole. There’s a feeling that the banks have been more stable than their US counterparts in recent quarters, and that this stability is turning into a selling point for foreign investors seeking something more predictable than Wall Street’s daily drama. This is evident in the offices on Bay Street, the ones with the floor-to-ceiling windows overlooking the financial district and the ones where the Bloomberg terminals glow all afternoon.

Shopify’s nearly 6% increase is the kind of action that tends to remind people of why they either adore or despise the Ottawan e-commerce behemoth. Celestica, which had recently performed poorly, was still getting better. Pipelines move silently in both directions, as evidenced by TC Energy’s slight gain on volume of almost 19 million shares. The Toronto-based insurance and investment company Fairfax Financial Holdings, led by Prem Watsa, added $56.64 to close at $2,370 per share, a figure that continues to deter people when they see it printed.

In this context, it’s important to keep an eye on the Canadian dollar. On April 1, the loonie had gained slightly during the session and was trading at about 0.72 against the US dollar. This modest strength is a reflection of how foreign investors currently view Canada—not as a safe haven per se, but as a market with real commodity exposure, reasonably priced banks, and less of the narrative volatility that tends to whipsaw US tech stocks. This week, a headline in Investor’s Business Daily stated that Canadian stocks are outperforming the S&P 500. For many American readers who hadn’t been paying attention, it felt like a story of discovery.

A number of TSX-listed companies, including Shopify, Canadian Natural Resources, Cenovus, and Manulife—all of which are watched by BNN-Bloomberg—will release their Q1 earnings this coming week. On April 9, BlackBerry will release its Q4 results, which will be more closely watched for the commentary surrounding its cybersecurity division, which has quietly evolved into the company’s true identity after years of being its former self. The same week, Royal Bank hosts its annual shareholder meeting.

How the Iran situation actually plays out, what happens to crude during the second week of the month, and whether the Bank of Canada makes any significant signals at its next meeting will determine whether the March 31 spike continues into April. The 52-week low of 22,227 seems like a very long time ago. Less than a year had passed. The TSX in 2026 is capable of both extremes, typically with little notice.