Ofgem said on Wednesday its forced prepayment meter rules appear to have strengthened protection for vulnerable customers, with an indicative 36 per cent fall in severe self-disconnection.
The first-phase process evaluation looks at how the rules were developed and put into practice, and what stakeholders think is working well or less well.
It also reports higher satisfaction among customers in vulnerable situations, and positive stakeholder views of the policy process, with stronger engagement than in earlier ones.
The report, dated 28 October 2026, calls the fall in harms “indicative evidence” rather than a proven effect of the rules.
It says its interview findings are limited by a small sample and by self-selection of participants, and that the aim of the evaluation is “not to establish causal relationships”.
Set against the early gains, household debt and arrears rose significantly after the February 2023 moratorium on forced installations and have stayed elevated since the rules were introduced.
Suppliers told the evaluation they faced operational and cost challenges in applying the rules. Ofgem said this led to variation in how the rules were applied, some precautionary behaviour and inconsistent use of information about customers’ vulnerability.
The process evaluation draws on readily available data up to early 2026.
A full impact evaluation is now under way. Ofgem said it will assess, and where possible attribute, how far the rules have reduced harms for protected customers, what has happened to debt, and whether there have been wider or unintended effects.
The rules followed a call for evidence in February 2023, a code of practice in April 2023 and a statutory consultation in June 2023. Ofgem’s decision said they would “take effect from 8 November 2023”.
The final version went further than the June proposals, moving over-75s and households with children under 2 into the highest protection categories.
Ofgem said then it would keep the rules under review. Its 2023 announcement said it intended to review them periodically to check they protect the most vulnerable “without unsustainably increasing bad debt”.
Before a forced installation, suppliers must make at least 10 attempts to contact the customer and carry out a site welfare visit. They must also give a £30 credit per meter on warrant installations and remote switches.
Suppliers can still move a customer to a prepayment meter without permission if the customer is building up debt and has not responded to offers of help, according to Ofgem’s guidance for customers.
Customers who cannot afford to top up are told to talk to their supplier, which must offer help, for example extra credit for those in a vulnerable situation.