Saturday, February 24, 2024

How to Be Profitable at College Football Betting

While fall is not quite in the air, college football has officially kicked off. It’s the best time of the year and there are millions of bettors out there looking to score a big win on each college football slate.

Whether you are new to the game or have some measure of experience, there are a few simple tips that can help you along. Check out these tips for being profitable when it comes to college football betting.

Road Dogs with Low Totals

While there are a few tips for being successful at college football betting, only a few can really give you an edge in the long run. With mobile technology being employed by top sportsbooks, bettors can find it all too easy to swipe through quickly and make a pick in just a few quick moments.

Studying the trends is critical. One trend is to go with conference road underdogs where the total is 50 or less. Since 2005, those road dogs have hit more than 53% of the time. Where the total is 45 points or less, that number goes up to nearly 55% against the spread. Conference foes know each other well, creating a tighter matchup.

Road Dogs with Short Spreads

Building off the last point, let’s stick with road underdogs. While conference underdogs tend to provide the biggest challenge, it is the short dogs that really wind up delivering. If you’re looking for solid bets, consider road underdogs that have a short spread – four points or fewer. The public loves favorites, especially when the spread is a touchdown or less.

This trend equates to capitalizing on public bias. Since 2005, short road dogs have hit at more than 54% against the spread. You can piggyback on this strategy and take short road dogs to win outright, delivering even more value in your picks.

Home-Field is Overvalued

Playing at home provides certain advantages that just aren’t there on the road. There is no concern about traveling or having to endure a hostile road crowd. There are also the comforts of a home stadium, not to mention the energy that comes from a raucous, loving crowd backing every play.

The home-field advantage is definitely real, but some bettors overvalue the advantage. Since recreational betters love home teams, bookmakers will begin to shade lines. This eventually leads to an overpriced wager, leading to less value. Since 2005, home teams have won nearly 59% of their games. But when it comes to covering the spread, the yare just 48.8% with a major loss on ROI. Where applicable, you may be able to take a home favorite if the money line is there but keep an eye out for strong odds on a road dog.

Watch for Heavily Bet Games

Anyone who has done five minutes of research on college football betting will find that fading the public is a sound strategy. Instead of looking for teams getting less than 50% of the action, focus on the really lopsided games with a lot of public action.

Since 2005, home teams that get fewer than 40% of the bets and at least 2.5x the average number of bets have hit at more than 57% with a serious ROI advantage. Let’s say the average game gets 5,000 bets, you’d want to look for games with at least 12,500 bets. The public favors home teams, so when they are particularly heavy against a road team, it can create a unique value when betting against the home team. It’s a tricky strategy that can pay off in a big way.