Watching a company that was selling below $4 per share—a price that, in most investor circles, generates a kind of calm assumption that the tale is winding down—climb to almost $11 in less than a year is a particular type of astonishment.
In April 2026, Nokia’s share price reached a 16-year high after the Finnish telecom and infrastructure company released Q1 earnings that exceeded forecasts by a comfortable margin, causing the market to reevaluate its assumptions. On the day of the Helsinki results announcement, the stock rose by almost 7%, and the increase didn’t feel like a short squeeze or a correction. It was similar to a rerating.
| Company | Nokia Oyj (NOK / NOKIA) — Finnish multinational technology company headquartered in Espoo, Finland; founded 1865; operates across Mobile Networks, Network Infrastructure, Cloud and Network Services, and Nokia Technologies |
|---|---|
| Share Price (April 2026) | Trading around $10.86 on the NYSE — 52-week range of $4.00 (low) to $10.90 (high); stock touched a 16-year high following Q1 2026 earnings release |
| Market Capitalisation | Approximately $61 billion — a remarkable rerating from a company whose shares were trading below $4 less than 12 months ago |
| CEO | Justin Hotard — joined Nokia as President and CEO on April 1, 2026; over 25 years of experience in global technology companies; background in AI and data centre markets |
| Q1 2026 Results | Net sales of €4.5 billion (+4%); comparable operating profit surged 54% to €281 million, beating analyst consensus of ~€250 million; gross margin expanded 320 basis points to 45.5% |
| AI & Cloud Revenue | AI and cloud customer net sales grew 49% in Q1 2026 — now accounting for 8% of group sales; Nokia raised its addressable market CAGR forecast to 27% through 2028 (up from 16% in November 2025) |
| Raised Guidance | Network Infrastructure net sales growth guidance raised to 12–14% for 2026 (previously 6–8%); Optical and IP Networks combined now expected to grow 18–20% (previously 10–12%) |
| Key Metrics | P/E ratio ~63–70x | Dividend yield 1.13% | Net cash €3.8 billion | Free cash flow €629 million in Q1 2026 |
The Q1 2026 figures are worth considering. Gross margin increased by 320 basis points to 45.5%, net sales hit €4.5 billion, and comparable operating profit jumped 54% to €281 million, exceeding the analyst estimate of about €250 million. These are not minor advancements for a corporation that spent years dealing with a post-5G hangover—the 5G buildout cycle peaked and then weakened, leaving equipment suppliers like Nokia lugging extra inventory and reset expectations.
The Infinera acquisition is creating synergies in optical networks, fixed networks are being purposefully trimmed toward higher-margin products, and the cost discipline implemented by Nokia’s previous leadership has resulted in a cleaner P&L than the company was operating two years ago. All of these factors contribute to the gross margin expansion.
The development of AI infrastructure is the particular driver that drove Nokia’s stock price to levels not seen since 2010. Nokia increased its estimate of the addressable market for cloud and AI from 16% in November 2025 to 27% compound annual growth through 2028. This is tracking actual order intake rather than an estimate based on conjecture. AI and cloud customer revenue now makes up 8% of group revenues, having increased by 49% in just the first quarter.
A large portion of this need is being met by the optical networking industry, which manages the fiber links that transport data between data centers. Massive amounts of data must be transferred between buildings, campuses, and cities by hyperscalers constructing and growing data centers. With its Infinera integration and new Digital Signal Processor roadmap unveiled at the OFC conference in March, Nokia is uniquely positioned to provide the scale and speed of optical transport infrastructure needed for that.
The current environment is described as a “AI supercycle” by new CEO Justin Hotard, who joined Nokia as President and CEO on April 1, notably just days before the Q1 results were released. This description may sound like marketing in the mouth of a less credible executive, but it has some weight because the order books seem to support it. Orders from AI and cloud customers reached €1 billion in Q1, and Network Infrastructure’s book-to-bill ratio remained significantly over one.
This indicates that Nokia is receiving more orders than it is shipping, which is usually a sign of sustained revenue growth. The guidance increase, which raises Network Infrastructure growth forecasts from 6–8% to 12–14% for the entire year, is the type of revision that analysts notice and that typically results in long-term rather than short-term changes in share prices.
The cultural aspect of Nokia’s recovery is difficult to ignore. For about ten years, the company’s name was associated with the collapse of the smartphone industry, when Apple and Android stole the market that Nokia had controlled, leaving the Finnish behemoth to struggle through a Microsoft acquisition and a protracted, agonizing reconstruction as a pure infrastructure and networking company. It was a slow and unglamorous repositioning.
It necessitated the complete closure of the consumer phone business, numerous restructurings, and a string of acquisitions, the most important of which was Alcatel-Lucent, followed by Infinera, which took years to effectively integrate. The Nokia that produced the phones is not the same Nokia that is currently trading at about $11 per share. It is the one that found a new market to be significant in after emerging from that devastation.
Optical order lead times are increasing to 12–18 months, which is a capacity issue as well as an indication of demand. Nokia’s longer-term growth story hinges on the 6G cycle, which is still years away from producing significant revenue. Whether the current AI buildout is a multi-year infrastructure wave or a spending cycle that will slow down sooner than the market currently anticipates is still up for debate. However, the share price, which is close to a 16-year high, is at least raising valid concerns about a business that has worked hard to regain its credibility.
A legitimate question is raised by the appraisal. As a result of the growth expectations that have been factored in after the earnings beat, the company is trading at a trailing P/E of about 63–70x, which is not cheap by any telecom equipment metric. It’s actually unclear if Nokia can maintain 49% AI and cloud revenue growth rates long enough to support that multiple. Constraints on semiconductor supply are a significant factor.