In weeks like this one, a certain quietness descends upon Downing Street. Something heavier, a sort of waiting, rather than the practiced silence of a functioning government. Employees show up earlier than normal. Aides move more quickly. The cameras outside the black door remain trained for longer than necessary, as though they anticipate an event at any time. It’s difficult to ignore it.
The prime minister is still Sir Keir Starmer. That is accurate. However, something subtle and hard to reverse has been done over the past week. Many of his own MPs now see him as a man holding a chair instead of sitting in one as a result. He has not been formally challenged. No contest for leadership has started. Nevertheless, discussions about the day after, the week after, and the leader after abound in Westminster’s hallways.
As far as anyone can identify, Wes Streeting’s resignation as health secretary was the catalyst. In a cautious, almost courteous letter, he requested what he described as a thorough discussion of the party’s future. Allies was informed that he had the 81 names required to issue a challenge, but he decided against using them. They might not have been there at all. It’s also possible that Streeting decided that waiting was preferable to fighting. The outcome was the same in either case. pressure without conflict. A door was gently pushed open.
Then there’s Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, who has been quietly in charge of the city for almost ten years. In an attempt to pave the way for Burnham to join Parliament, a Labour MP resigned in order to start a by-election in Makerfield, a seat on the outskirts of Wigan. According to reports, Reform UK is confident there. The Greens are planning. The choreography is obvious, but none of this is clear-cut, and Burnham hasn’t made any official statements.
The former deputy prime minister, Angela Rayner, has also stated that she hasn’t ruled herself out. She claims that an inquiry into her tax matters has been concluded. The wording was intentional. Individuals who wish to be considered for leadership positions do not claim to have excluded themselves. They claim that they haven’t ruled themselves. Rayner hasn’t done either, which is a stance in and of itself.
Starmer will fight, according to his supporters. He has repeatedly assured his cabinet that he will not leave. His recent speeches have a tone that suggests a man who has been written off in the past and plans to be written off once more—a hint of stubbornness. A prime minister-supporting Labour official said he felt like he was going crazy this week. After the kind of landslide that should have bought ten years of patience, a party that had spent years in opposition was now tearing itself apart less than two years into government.
However, it turns out that landslides don’t buy patience. They increase expectations. This month’s local elections revealed something the leadership had hoped to keep under wraps: Labour lost ground in England, Scotland, and Wales. The first to openly call for a contest was Catherine West, a backbench MP whose name few people outside of Westminster would recognize. Others came after. According to reports, more than 100 MPs now want him removed, but counts like these tend to soften when names are actually requested.
Little things determine what happens next. a Makerfield by-election. There may or may not be a whip count. A prime minister who appears to be choosing disobedience over leaving as this is happening. The nation seems to be asked to wait for something that no one has the courage to begin yet.