These 6 States Will Hold the White House Key in 2024
- Both parties are looking for ways to win with the 2024 presidential elections fast approaching.
- A group of swing states from the Midwest and Sun Belt will be at top of the list of contenders.
- There is a chance that the 2024 race could see a rematch with the 2020 election.
Over the past decade, the road to the White House — once dominated by Florida and Ohio — has evolved.
While bellwethers such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania remain an important part of the equation for Democratic and Republican presidential nominees to reach the 270 electoral vote threshold for victory, the Sun Belt region has grown in importance for potential contenders.
President Joe Biden aiming for a 2024 campaign, while former President Donald Trump already has his sights set on it. launchedHis third White House campaign was a strong indication that there is still a chance of a rematch of 2020.
However, no matter who becomes the next president, both parties will target six swing states to capture control of the White House: Arizona and Georgia, Michigan, Nevada Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
Democrats — fresh off a midterm election cycle where they defied conventional political wisdom by retaining their Senate majority and minimizing major losses in the House despite losing control of the lower chamber — are increasingly hopeful that they can reelect Biden if he chooses to run for president again.
Republicans, who will have a slim House majority in January believe that Biden will be a liability to Democrats. The GOP must also contend with Trump’s toxic political brand in major battleground states, where voters rejected the former president’s endorsements of statewide candidates in midterms.
Still, the GOP is poised to reach 2024 on solid ground in Florida, where Gov. Ron DeSantis — a potential presidential contender — was reelected in a landslide in November, as well as Ohio, which elected JD Vance to the Senate despite Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan’s strong campaign.
2012 margin: Romney +9.0%
2016 margin: Trump +3.5%
2020 margin: Biden +0.3%
Between 1952 and 2016, Arizona backed the Republican presidential nominee in every election except for 1996 — when then-President Bill Clinton won the state over former Kansas Sen. Bob Dole by a little over 2 points.
The Grand Canyon State has been long associated with Barry Goldwater – the conservative political icon who was the Republican presidential candidate in 1964. For decades, it had a strongly red lean in federal elections.
However, as Arizona’s population has grown, so has its political orientation.
In 2012, former Massachusetts Gov. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney won the state easily over former President Barack Obama. However, Hillary Clinton, former Secretary of State, reduced the GOP margin to just 4 points in 2016.
Biden, buoyedTrump narrowly defeated the state in 2020 due to gains made by the state’s growing Latino population.
The performance of Democrats in Arizona during the November midterms is encouraging.
Katie Hobbs, Secretary of State, was not the only one. defeatMAGA-infused Kari lake in the gubernatorial races, but Sen. Mark Kelly wonAdrian Fontes and Republican Blake Masters were elected to a six-year term. electedHobbs to succeed Mark Finchem who repeatedly questioned 2020’s presidential election results.
2012 margin: Romney +7.8%
2016 margin: Trump +5.1%
2020 margin: Biden +0.2%
For decades, Republicans could depend on the Peach States’ electoral votes falling in their favor. It’s over.
While GOP politicians were enjoying double-digit wins in statewide races, former Democratic state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams — who saw the possibility of a more politically-competitive Georgia — worked behind the scenes to build a turnout organization that could rival that of the Republican Party.
Abrams will be retiring in 2018 cameWithin 55,000 votes of winning the gubernatorial elections that year.
Biden is now two years later wonTrump won the state by about 12,000 votes. Trump was followed closely by the 2021 dual runoff victoriesSens. Raphael Warnock & Jon Ossoff – Republicans Kelly Loeffler & David Perdue, respectively
The exponential growth of the Atlanta suburbs, driven by new Black, Asian, and Latino residents, has given the state a purple veneer — but this year also showed the limitations of Democratic gains.
Warnock wonAfter defeating a challenge by Republican Herschel Walker, Walker was elected to a full six-year term. He became the only Democrat to win statewide in midterms. Despite a candidacy that many Republicans considered deeply flawed, Walker won 48.6% of votes in the runoff.
The Republicans won every other statewide election led by Gov. Brian Kemp defeated Abrams by almost 300,000 votes in a rematch.
Translation: Georgia will remain on everyone’s mind through 2024.
2012 margin: Obama +9.5%
2016 margin: Trump +0.2%
2020 margin: Biden +2.8%
Michigan has been a key part of the electoral calculation for Democrats since 1992. They won the state in every presidential election from 1992 to 2012. They appealed to voters in Detroit and its suburbs. They also enjoyed support from union households and moderates in rural and exurban areas.
The party was shocked by Trump’s narrow win in the long-time blue state in 2016, as the Republican made significant gains with the white working-class voters, who had been slowly drifting away form Democrats cycle after cycle.
The party placed a premium on flipping back the Wolverine State into their column in 2020. Biden was able do that, winning by almost 3 points over Trump.
The state’s Democrats also had some of the most impressive victories in the country in November.
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer wonNearly 11 points separated state Attorney General Dana Nessel from Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, who won their races by a wide margin. The party also won control of both the Michigan legislature houses, and voters approved a referendum to enshrine reproductive rights in the state Constitution.
Despite the Democratic wins, the state’s fifteen electoral votes will be a prize for both sides in 2024.
2012 margin: Obama +6.7%
2016 margin: Clinton +2.4%
2020 margin: Biden +2.4%
Since 2008, Democrats have been victorious at the presidential level in Silver State. Obama won by close to 13 points. He was followed by his victory of almost 7 points in 2012.
Clinton and Biden won the state with just over 2 percentage points. Republicans saw the rapidly growing Western state as one they could flip into their column, particularly if it can be made inroads within the Democratic-heavy Clark County.
The election of Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo as their nominee for the gubernatorial office gave Republicans a major boost in November. defeatedCurrent Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak.
But Democrats also won a major victory by reelectingSen. Catherine Cortez Masto was elected to a second term, replacing Adam Laxalt (ex-state Attorney General), who was strongly backed Trump. And after state Democrats approved congressional maps that some in the party saw as especially risky in a GOP wave year, all three of the party’s House incumbents — Dina Titus, Steven Horsford, and Susie Lee — won their respective races.
The midterm ticket-splitting again showed that Nevada will be a hot target for both sides in 2024.
2012 margin: Obama +5.4%
2016 margin: Trump +0.7%
2020 margin: Biden +1.2%
Biden is close to Scranton, his hometown. Therefore, Pennsylvania was always going be a key state in the party’s 2024 strategy.
Democrats won Pennsylvania in every presidential election from 1992 to 2012. Trump narrowly beat Clinton in 2016, winning support among white working-class voters in rural and exurban communities.
But Biden fought back in 2020, thanks to strong returns from Philadelphia and its affluent surrounding areas, as also a robust vote for Allegheny County which includes Pittsburgh.
The Democrats also had a great year in 2022. electing Lt. Gov. John Fetterman was elected to the Senate to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey. Josh Shapiro was also elected to the Senate. landslideTo succeed term-limited Democratic Governor. Tom Wolf.
After three special elections held in 2023, Democrats will be the next governor of the state House of Representatives. However, a legal challenge has been filed. disputeWith state Republicans, the party could be able to extend its claim for a majority for the next few month.
Despite the GOP losses, the party — keen on winning back suburban voters and boosting their margins in the state’s rural outposts — will again make a major play for Pennsylvania in 2024.
2012 margin: Obama +6.9%
2016 margin: Trump +0.8%
2020 margin: Biden +0.6%
Wisconsin is one the most divided states in the country.
Al Gore and John Kerry, both Democratic presidential nominees, won statewide wins in 2000-2004. Obama won the state easily for the second time in 2008 and 2012.
Trump won Wisconsin over to the GOP in 2016, marking the first time the state had supported a Republican presidential candidate since 1984.
Democrats, stunned by the loss, regrouped and elected Tony Evers as governor in 2018 — knocking out onetime GOP star Scott Walker — while also reelecting Sen. Tammy Baldwin to a second term.
In 2020, Biden won the state by a narrow margin over Trump.
In November 2022, Evers won a second term over Republican businessman Tim Michels. GOP Sen. Ron Johnson was narrowly defeated. defeated Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes will be elected to the third term in the upper house.
Both parties are targeting the Badger State in 2024, in what will be a fiercely contested race for the presidency.
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