Mortgage rates rose four weeks in a row in September. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey had the 30-year fixed at 6.71% on September 3. By September 24, it was 7.03%.
Doug Hoven Jr. has watched the reaction play out across his calendar. Some buyers have pulled back entirely. Others are pressing ahead but making decisions based on assumptions that don’t hold up in Hampton Roads right now.
“Higher rates don’t cause most of the mistakes I see,” says Hoven, a REALTOR® with The Ron Sawyer Team at RE/MAX Prime. “Bad information does. People are reacting to the national story and missing what’s happening on their own street.”
Here are the five he sees most often this fall.
1. Reading national headlines as local news
Headlines about cooling markets have convinced some buyers that sellers everywhere are desperate. The Hampton Roads data says otherwise. The Real Estate Information Network (REIN) reported 6,120 active listings in August, up 7.2% from a year ago. The regional median sales price still rose to $388,950, up from $370,000.
Supply sat at 2.86 months. That is more room than buyers had in recent years, but still well short of a market where buyers hold the upper hand.
“More homes to look at is not the same as a buyer’s market,” Douglas Hoven says. “You have more options. You don’t have a discount on everything.”
2. Treating an online estimate as a price
Buyers routinely show up with a Zillow number and anchor their offer to it. Zillow’s own published figures put the median error for homes that are not listed for sale at roughly 7%. On a home near the Hampton Roads median, that works out to a swing of about $27,000 in either direction.
“An estimate can’t see a new roof, a flooded crawlspace or a kitchen from 1994,” Hoven says. “Comparable sales from the last few months are what an appraiser will use, so that’s what we use.”
3. Getting one mortgage quote
With rates moving weekly, the gap between lenders matters more than usual. Freddie Mac chief economist Sam Khater made the point in the agency’s September 10 release, noting that buyers who compare several rate quotes can potentially save thousands.
Doug Hoven tells clients to collect at least three loan estimates on the same day, with the same loan type and down payment, so they are comparing like with like. For military buyers, that includes lenders experienced with VA loans.
4. Lowballing homes in the busiest price band
Some buyers have decided every listing deserves an aggressive offer. That works on a home that has been sitting. It rarely works in the $300,000 to $399,999 range, which accounted for about 27% of all settled sales in Hampton Roads in August, according to REIN. Pending sales were also up 10.46% from a year earlier.
“The middle of this market is still competitive,” Doug Hoven Jr. says. “If a well-priced house in Chesapeake just hit the market, a low offer usually means you watch somebody else buy it.”
5. Ignoring the days-on-market clock
The median home in Hampton Roads went under contract in 27 days in August, according to REIN. Hoven uses that figure as a baseline for every negotiation.
A listing well past that mark, especially one with a price cut, usually has a seller ready to talk about price, repairs or closing costs. A listing that is a few days old usually does not. Buyers who treat both the same way either overpay on the stale listing or lose the fresh one.
“Time on market is the most honest number on a listing,” Douglas Hoven Jr. says. “It tells you how motivated the seller is before you ever write an offer.”
The fall advantage
For buyers who avoid those mistakes, Hoven sees real opportunity in the last quarter of the year. There is more inventory than a year ago, sellers who list in the fall tend to be serious about moving, and the buyers still shopping are the ones ready to act.
“You don’t need perfect timing,” Doug Hoven says. “You need local numbers, a good loan, and the discipline to price each house on its own. Do that, and fall can be the best season to buy here.”
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